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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

However the current field is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and recent strugglers rising in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's facing five other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still