Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
